Nigeria’s economic reform programme under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has received a fresh boost as Moody’s Ratings revised the country’s credit outlook from stable to positive.
The global credit rating agency attributed the revision to stronger-than-expected economic growth, improved external buffers and greater macroeconomic stability.
Moody’s, in a statement issued on Friday, affirmed Nigeria’s sovereign credit rating at B3, which remains six levels below investment grade.
The agency said rising oil production was expected to boost Nigeria’s economic growth in 2026 and 2027, while stronger external buffers could provide greater protection against external shocks.
Moody’s said the improvement in Nigeria’s outlook reflected “stronger external buffers and greater macroeconomic stability.”
The agency also pointed to the importance of sustained economic growth in strengthening the country’s resilience and fiscal position.
Moody’s analysts, Jorge Valez and Matt Robinson, said economic growth, “if sustained, would enhance the country’s capacity to absorb external shocks, strengthen economic resilience and, over time, support a gradual increase in government revenue.”
They added that continued economic expansion could improve Nigeria’s ability to withstand external pressures while gradually strengthening government finances.
The analysts’ assessment suggests that maintaining the current trajectory of economic growth will be critical to translating the positive outlook into an eventual upgrade of Nigeria’s sovereign credit rating.
Moody’s latest decision places Nigeria closer to a possible credit-rating upgrade and represents another positive assessment of the direction of the country’s economy under the Tinubu administration.
The development also highlights the administration’s fiscal consolidation efforts and economic reforms, which are aimed at strengthening public finances, improving revenue generation and restoring macroeconomic stability.
The positive outlook could also support investor confidence in the Nigerian economy, particularly if the government sustains improvements in economic growth, oil production and external reserves.
However, the B3 rating means Nigeria remains well below investment grade, making continued reforms and sustained economic improvements important to securing a future upgrade.
Moody’s assessment therefore provides a positive signal for the government’s reform agenda while placing greater emphasis on the need to sustain economic growth and strengthen the country’s fiscal and external positions.